Written by: Danny Belton - Head of Lending

What’s the latest in the mortgage market?

Despite some stability in the market, a burning question lingers: when will mortgage rates finally start to lower?

The answer, unfortunately, isn't as simple as a calendar date. Like the housing market itself, predicting the future of mortgage rates is a complex combination of economic factors, market sentiment, and global uncertainty. However, by looking at the current financial landscape and expert forecasts, we can at least paint a picture of what could be on the horizon.

What has already happened in the market?

Following Rishi Sunak’s instatement as prime minister, the proposed tax cuts announced in Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget have now been reversed and/or axed. 

The current Bank of England base rate is sitting at 5.25%, the figure it has been at since it was increased to 5% in June. The reason for this is to combat inflation, which dropped significantly to 3.4% in March. The government's inflation target is 2%, and the Bank of England MPC are forecasting that inflation is going to continue dropping throughout the year.

City A.M. conducted a poll of economists, and found that 61% of them believe that the Bank of England will begin dropping the bank rate in June of this year.

Reasons for optimism


While runaway inflation was the main culprit driving interest rate hikes last year, its recent slowdown could have a positive effect on mortgage rates. Lower inflation pressures on the Bank of England (BoE) could pave the way for future rate cuts, trickling down to lower mortgage offers.

The housing market slowdown

Higher rates dampened buyer demand, cooling an otherwise hot housing market. If the base rate begins to move down, this shift in dynamics might incentivise lenders to offer more competitive rates to attract borrowers.

Market expectations

Some analysts predict a potential Bank of England (BoE) rate cut as early as the second quarter of 2024 (June), with gradual easing throughout the year. This anticipation itself can nudge mortgage rates downward in the meantime.

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Warning sign in businessman's hand, Caution

Cautious considerations

Geopolitical turmoil

Global events like the ongoing war in Ukraine and potential economic slowdowns can make financial markets more volatile and influence inflation, impacting interest rates.

Individual circumstances

Your credit score, loan-to-value ratio, and chosen mortgage product will all play a role in the rates you're offered, regardless of broader market trends.

Important information

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.

There may be a fee for mortgage advice. The actual amount you pay will depend on your circumstances. The fee is up to 1% but a typical fee is 0.3% of the amount borrowed.

What does this mean for you?

Don't rush into decisions

If you're nearing the end of a fixed rate term, carefully weigh the options before making a snap decision. A lower rate might be around the corner, but consider potential penalties for leaving your current deal early. It’s good practice to start looking for a new deal six months prior to the end of your current one, so bookmark that date and keep your eyes peeled.

Stay informed

Keep an eye on the news and housing forecasts to stay ahead of the curve. Remember, the landscape can shift quickly, and it’s best to be as prepared as possible.

Consult a mortgage adviser

A mortgage adviser can navigate the complex market and find the best deals available based on your specific situation. With times changing as they are, it’s helpful to have someone who knows the industry in and out on your side.


Want to know if there's a better deal for you?

Let us monitor your current mortgage, giving you peace of mind you’re on the right deal, every month. This monitoring can be extra handy during a period in which interest rates change frequently.

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We’re here to help

If your mortgage term is about to renew and you’re worried about what to do next, or you’re a first time buyer unsure about your options, speak to an adviser.

On hand to support you every step of the way, our mortgage advisers will provide you with clear-cut guidance to help you navigate the rapidly changing market. Whether you’re a first time buyer or due to remortgage soon, get in touch and see how we can help.

We can also help you by providing real-time updates about your mortgage, and whether you could find a better deal to suit your circumstances.

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